Skip to main content

Answer

Prerequisites

  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)
  • Weighted Average Calculation

Step-by-Step Derivation

  1. Recall the formula for the ML estimator of the Poisson parameter λ\lambda derived in part (a): λ^=1Ni=1Nki\hat{\lambda} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N k_i

  2. From the problem description, the total area was divided into 144 km2/0.25 km2=576144 \text{ km}^2 / 0.25 \text{ km}^2 = 576 grid cells. We can also verify this by summing up the observed number of cells in the table: N=229+211+93+35+7+1=576N = 229 + 211 + 93 + 35 + 7 + 1 = 576

  3. Next, we calculate the total number of hits across all NN cells. This is given by the sum of kk multiplied by the number of cells that had exactly kk hits. For the category "5 and over", we will assume the value is 55 for this calculation, as it's the minimum possible value and only 11 cell observed it. Total Hits=k(k×number of cells with k hits)\text{Total Hits} = \sum_{k} (k \times \text{number of cells with } k \text{ hits}) Total Hits=(0×229)+(1×211)+(2×93)+(3×35)+(4×7)+(5×1)\text{Total Hits} = (0 \times 229) + (1 \times 211) + (2 \times 93) + (3 \times 35) + (4 \times 7) + (5 \times 1) Total Hits=0+211+186+105+28+5=535\text{Total Hits} = 0 + 211 + 186 + 105 + 28 + 5 = 535

  4. Substitute these values back into the ML estimator formula: λ^=Total HitsN=535576\hat{\lambda} = \frac{\text{Total Hits}}{N} = \frac{535}{576}

  5. Compute the final numerical value: λ^0.9288\hat{\lambda} \approx 0.9288