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Answer

Prerequisites

  • Algebraic Simplification
  • Probability Inequalities

Step-by-Step Derivation

From part (a), the decision rule is to guess heads if: (1θ1)α>θ2(1α)(1 - \theta_1) \alpha > \theta_2 (1 - \alpha)

Given the condition θ1=θ2=θ\theta_1 = \theta_2 = \theta, we substitute θ\theta into the inequality: (1θ)α>θ(1α)(1 - \theta) \alpha > \theta (1 - \alpha)

Now, we simplify the inequality: αθα>θθα\alpha - \theta \alpha > \theta - \theta \alpha

Adding θα\theta \alpha to both sides: α>θ\alpha > \theta

Thus, when the error rates are symmetric (θ1=θ2=θ\theta_1 = \theta_2 = \theta), the optimal decision rule simplifies to: guess heads if the prior probability of heads (α\alpha) is strictly greater than the probability of the friend reporting incorrectly (θ\theta).